Wednesday, March 08, 2006

DIET earnings cheatsheet

Notes froom last Q c.c.: useful for evaluating results.

3Q numbers for comparison
220,000 paying customers
CPA per customer $58 (67 year ago)
rev $13.5 million
net income of $2.1 million or $.09 a share for Q3.


Our revenue growth was mainly from a 15% in increase in revenue per member due to a combination of price increases implemented in late 2004 and our expanding portfolio service of service information and product offers.

Our gross margin remained constant at 86%.

General and administrative expense total $1.3 million for the third quarter of 2005, compared to $1.4 million in the comparable period last year.

Monday, January 30, 2006

IPSU Earnings Cheatsheet

< Sales Volume:Look for sales volume relative to (32 - 4.5)/4 = 6.875 mil cwt.
Historically it seems that Dec quarter is strongest in terms of sales (cant find volume breakdown) so we should be looking to exceed that number.


Gross margin: 2004: 8.3% 2005: 5.3% Look for a higher number to reflect cost savings from energy as well as better spread of raw sugar cane prices and refined pricing.

Raw Sugar prices : "Our cost of raw cane sugar decreased from $21.17 per cwt (on a raw market basis) in 2004 to $20.77 per cwt in 2005" Expecting around 22-23 becuase of sharp spike in raw sugar price. Sugar #14

Refined Sugar Sales prices


(000 cwt) (per cwt) (000 cwt) (per cwt)
Sugar Sales:

Industrial
13,111 $ 27.64 12,227 $ 28.23
Consumer
8,780 32.15 9,392 32.18
Foodservice
3,767 30.14 3,034 31.38
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Domestic Sales
25,658 29.55 24,653 30.12
World/Toll
1,946 12.60 2,255 9.94

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sugar Sales
27,604 $ 28.36 26,908 $ 28.43

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Energy Costs : They sold Hollly sugar corproation which accounted for 45% of natural gas use, but nat. gas provides about half of the total energy. Its not clear how much coal and fuel oil Holly used. 10K said that at current prices they are on pace to spend 8.8 mil more on energy than last year. Evaluate energy costs through gross margin...

Thursday, January 19, 2006

IPSU




The stock moved today on NO NEWS.
Note the low volatility previously and the nice base.

The company is benefitting from an increase in sugar prices:

Here are some relevant articles:



Sugar prices here
There is also a very high yield (> 10% per yahoo), but that is due to a special dividend issued earlier resulting from the sale of part of their operations.


Margin between refined and raw: here (Barchart)
A concern is that a large part of the sugar they sale is at long-term contract prices, causing the price to lag industry trends. From the 2005 10K:

We sell a significant portion of our industrial sugar volume on fixed price forward sales contracts for up to a year, many of which are on a calendar year basis. As a result, our realized sales prices tend to lag industry trends.

Industrial sugar sales little less than half of their overall sales in 2005 and 2004. Luckily, their long-term contracts tend to span calendar years, and most have likely been repriced already. Next quarter's earnings should reflect higher prices across the board.

A large part of their costs is energy: natural gas and coal.


Sales


For the year ended September 30, 2005, we sold approximately 32 million hundredweight, or cwt, of refined sugar, which includes 4.5 million cwt. produced by our Holly Sugar Corporation subsidiary, which we sold on September 20, 2005.

Monday, January 16, 2006

RAIL



RAIL enjoyed a breakout from its 2-month base this week and has also proceeded to retest the previous resistance line. This week will tell whether the breakout will be successful, but right now both technicals and fundamentals are very strong. I referred to RAIL in a previous post. The company makes railroad cars, and in particular specializes in aluminum coal cars. The spike in oil and natural gas prices, along with the general health of the economy has led to high demand for coal as an alternative to natural gas in power plants. As a result miners are increasing capital expenditure as can't keep up with demand. Railroads have also enjoyed excellent results recently, and will also be upgrading an aging fleet of cars.

Saturday, January 07, 2006

The market looks very strong

Most of the stocks are follow are in bullish breakout patterns. Here is what I am in:


  • tie
  • hitk
  • mtxx
  • hom
  • adam
  • goog
  • yhoo
  • bk
  • aly
  • grow

Thursday, January 05, 2006

GBX

GBX reported earnings today. Here is the story : earnings release

The main takeaways from their results are that the company has greatly increased its margins mostly by moving operations to Mexico as well as increasing their leased car segment revenue, which has good margins. The negatives are that as a result of gearing their production toward populating their lease fleet, they delivered fewer cars than last year to customers causing a decline in revenue. Overall revenue is down from the comparable 2005 quarter by about 15%, but because of the better operating margins, earnings are up almost 50%: good news! Also forward looking statements are very interesting with mentions of large contracts being negotiated, as well as an EPS guidance in the range $2.30 to $2.45. The guidance places the forward P/E at about 12.7 and Price to sales P/S is about 0.5.

I think that if the rail industry stays healthy, which will happen if the economy is well, GBX can perform very well. Will be a buyer after it pulls back from the post-earnings spike.

Wednesday, January 04, 2006

Want to research: coal industry derivative plays

Got idea to look into coal industry derivative plays from here

Here is a quote: "Next, as oil and natural gas prices have shot up, utilities are using more coal to produce electricity. So coal companies are revving up their mines. To do so, Value Line says, they need more equipment -- like the machinery produced by Joy Global".

Need to research these:

  • JOYG: Chart Seems to provide the most leverage.
  • RAIL:Chart This one had a recent IPO, and has very good growth. They are the largest maker of freight cars and should benefit very well as coal and rail industries do well and increase capital spending. Their backlog is at an all-time high. Only concern is future offerrings, and the fact that last quarter had a favorable comparison because the correspondign 2004 quarter had some labor settlement charges, and the 2005 Q3 had some deferred revenues recognized which inflated things a little bit. Still the stock looks pretty good, and is hovering around 50 SMA.